Publications & Open Data
Open science, from hypothesis to seafloor.
Preprint, scripts, datasets. This is how the investigation works.
Primary Publication
A Bayesian Search for a Pre-Younger Dryas Non-Industrial Civilisation
Julien Sivan & Valérie Legat
February 2026 · 59 pages · 18 chaptersA four-stage Bayesian investigation evaluating the hypothesis of a pre-Younger Dryas non-industrial civilisation (H₃). The analysis identifies a candidate site in the Sulu Sea through convergent evidence from geometric alignments, philological analysis, bathymetric validation, population genetics, comparative mythology, archaeoastronomy, and external geodesic data. Ten independent evidence lines across eight disciplines converge on a single location. The paper includes its own Monte Carlo self-refutation and formal retraction of initial claims that did not survive audit.
Stage 1: Is H₃ viable? → Stage 2: Where to look? → Stage 3: Does the evidence converge? → Stage 4: Can we break it? → Synthesis: What survives?
Reproducible Scripts
Eight Python scripts. Every calculation verifiable.
The complete analytical pipeline is documented and available. Run it yourself. Break it if you can.
| Script | Function | Key output |
|---|---|---|
| alba_phi_scan_complete.py | Global Φ scan (Phase 1–3), candidate identification P1 → P5 | Candidate coordinates, Φ scores |
| alba_monte_carlo_audit.py | Monte Carlo 500 corpora, hub test (z = 4.98), corpus stability analysis | p < 10⁻⁶, retraction of BF 200–500 |
| analyze_critias_gmrt.py | Low mountain validation, summit morphology, LGM shore distances | low-mountain.json |
| analyze_platon_rings.py | Concentric rings 2.5:1:2:2:3:3 match (RMSE = 6.2 m) | platon-rings-analysis.json |
| analyze_critias_inversion.py | Egyptian 180° directional inversion, canal profile, wind analysis | critias-inversion-analysis.json |
| hub_analysis.py | Φ hub connectivity (Giza, Nazca, P5) | Hub rankings, connectivity matrix |
| nazca_convergence.py | Geodesic intersection T3/R-A → P5 (p = 0.00017) | Convergence coordinates, BF 15–30 |
| betelgeuse_declination.py | Precession-corrected declination at −15,000 BP | Declination trajectory, Great Circle alignment |
Public Datasets Used
All source data is publicly available.
No proprietary data. No paywalled sources. Every dataset used in ALBA can be independently accessed and verified.
GEBCO 2024 Grid
General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans
Global bathymetric data at 15 arcsec (~460 m/pixel). Primary dataset for hill detection, plain measurements, and isobath analysis.
GMRT v4.2
Global Multi-Resolution Topography (Lamont-Doherty)
High-resolution bathymetry at 2 arcsec (~61 m/pixel). Used for concentric ring analysis, radial profiles, and summit refinement.
ETOPO 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
Global relief model. Used for D8 Flow Accumulation, canal analysis, and LGM palaeogeographic reconstructions.
Perseus Digital Library
Tufts University
Original Greek texts of Plato (Timaeus, Critias) and Herodotus (Histories). All philological analysis references the original language.
Population Genetics
Larena et al. 2021 (PNAS)
Multiple migrations to the Philippines during the last 50,000 years. Sama-Bajau ancestry and diasporic triangle analysis.
Nazca Convergence
Maglione Nicholson et al. (Nazca Group)
Independent geodesic Table-8 analysis. Nazca line extensions T3 and R-A converge on the Sulu Sea (p = 0.00017).
External research, independently verified
Key References
The sources that shaped the investigation.
Younger Dryas Impact & Geology
Moore et al. (2024) — Extended platinum anomalies at the YD Boundary across five continents. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 627.
Sweatman, M. (2021) — The Younger Dryas impact hypothesis: Review of the impact evidence. Earth-Science Reviews, 218.
Sweatman, M. (2024) — Decoding Göbekli Tepe with archaeoastronomy. Cambridge Archaeological Journal, 34(1).
Wolbach et al. (2018) — Extraordinary biomass-burning episode triggered by the YD cosmic impact ~12,800 years ago.
Archaeological Anomalies
Freeth et al. (2021) — A model of the Cosmos in the ancient Greek Antikythera Mechanism. Scientific Reports.
Haklay & Gopher (2020) — Geometry and architectural planning at Göbekli Tepe.
Dunn, C. (1998/2024) — The Giza Power Plant: Technologies of Ancient Egypt. Bear & Company.
Balezin et al. (2018) — Electromagnetic properties of the Great Pyramid at microwave frequencies.
Palaeogeography & Genetics
Larena et al. (2021) — Multiple migrations to the Philippines during the last 50,000 years. PNAS, 118(13).
Oppenheimer, S. (1998) — Eden in the East: The Drowned Continent of Southeast Asia. Weidenfeld & Nicolson.
Nunn & Reid (2016) — Aboriginal memories of inundation dating from more than 7,000 years ago. Australian Geographer.
Methodology & Framework
Frank & Schmidt (2018) — The Silurian Hypothesis: Would it be possible to detect an industrial civilisation in the geological record? Int. J. Astrobiology.
Kass & Raftery (1995) — Bayes Factors. JASA, 90(430).
Howson & Urbach (2006) — Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach. Open Court, 3rd ed.
Ancient Texts
Plato — Timaeus (24e) and Critias (113c–118b). Perseus Digital Library. [Lamb translation, 1925.]
Herodotus — Histories, Bk I (202–203) and Bk IV (184–185). Perseus Digital Library. [Godley translation, 1920.]
Cite This Work
Reference formats.
APA / Academic
Sivan, J. & Legat, V. (2026). A Bayesian Search for a Pre-Younger Dryas Non-Industrial Civilisation: From Hypothesis to Candidate Site. Preprint, Zenodo. https://zenodo.org/records/18607785
BibTeX
@article{sivan2026alba, title={A Bayesian Search for a Pre-Younger Dryas Non-Industrial Civilisation: From Hypothesis to Candidate Site}, author={Sivan, Julien and Legat, Valérie}, year={2026}, note={Preprint, Zenodo}, url={https://zenodo.org/records/18607785}, doi={10.5281/zenodo.18607785}, license={CC-BY 4.0} }
The strength of the argument lies not in any individual dataset, but in the coherence of their intersection.
Everything is open. Run the scripts. Check the data. Challenge the conclusions.
Science that hides its data is not science. ALBA hides nothing.